current market

[sandm]

any guesses on where the market is going to land in the next 6 to 9 months?

onlyinboards had right at 1000 boats listed 2-3 months ago and safe to say the last year has weeded out all the listings that were sold and never removed so it's likely a pretty solid "current" number.
it's up to over 1800 today. only 350ish are 2022's and a third of those are mc's.
get a feel that there are some "bargains" out there that could start to drive pricing back down on some of the used machines.

supra/moomba and a couple of the other smaller "boutique" builders if you will are not showing a lot of 2022 dealer spec boats listed indicating they have sold their allotments OR it shows the power of skiers choice dealer agreements/territories but wonder how many will back out prior to next year to snag used models if the used market continues to climb over winter. it's also unknown if any of the 2022 listing on there are actual build slots/boats or just putting a bunch of listings out to generate leads. there could be some pretty big deltas between 2020 and 2022 for some that may need or want to exit the market quickly.

none of this begins to factor in the snowpack out west and if we have another abysmal year.....

[mgswake]

Waiting on the used market to come down. I saw a used 2018 max listed for 79k. I can’t see anyway that boat was that expensive new. I see this across all brands. I spec’d a S23 155k msrp 190k and I left a few boxes unchecked. I don’t see any way to get into any of the brands new right now, so I’m hoping for a downturn in the used market.

[MJHSupra]

In 6-9 months I do not see any real big movements. Demand for tow boats is still high, but higher prices will slow things down a little. New boat 2020-2021 owners trying to sell and buy the next years model will be eating some depreciation.

Not sure peeps will be buying a Moomba for $110k and trying to sell for the same price in the same year. Same for Supras.

I see a lot of people who bought entry level models wanting to move into the more expensive lines.

Build slots will be a premium and many will be gone by boat show season.

I was skeptical about peeps paying $275-300k for a Paragon, but they are selling everything they make.

Same for the opposite end. Heydays have been sold out.

Silly season has stated now that all manufactures are producing 2022s and hitting the lakes. Look how many BUs and MCs are for sale. Happens each year.

I still think I could sell my SL for the same price as what I paid two years ago.


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[Jason1975]

I think its hard to say. This could all come crashing down like the housing market at some point with people underwater with payments and a rise in inflation which we are already seeing at HUGE levels. Or it could go on for some time as people re-direct their income to other hobbies since covid won't allow for what they did in the past. And if gas keeps going up that may have some people rethinking it.

[brad460]

Agree with MJH-

This market shows no signs of slowing down which is being exasperated by the lack of supply. I do believe at some point (like lumber) new boat prices will get too high that demand will start to drop off. Just doesn’t feel like it’ll happen anytime soon..

There is a family I noticed on the Moomba FB group- they bought a new Max this year (first time boat owners). After getting the boat they posted about struggling to launch and load it. Now I see the boat is for sale. How many of these type of folks are out there getting ready to sell? (That could cool the market).

[mgswake]

any guesses on where the market is going to land in the next 6 to 9 months?

onlyinboards had right at 1000 boats listed 2-3 months ago and safe to say the last year has weeded out all the listings that were sold and never removed so it's likely a pretty solid "current" number.
it's up to over 1800 today. only 350ish are 2022's and a third of those are mc's.
get a feel that there are some "bargains" out there that could start to drive pricing back down on some of the used machines.

The other thing that is factoring into only inboards is the prevalence of FB market place. I have been searching there this week, and multiple boats from each manufacturer are popping up daily. That is in a 250-500 mile search radius. I think there are a lot of used boats out there and increasing. However, there is still high demand for new boats so I don’t see that market slowing down anytime soon. I think people are going to realize the used boat prices are going to start dropping with the increased supply. Also, I’ll say it again please limit loans to 10 years or less!!

[mgswake]

Brad460, to your point; how many times do we see I can’t get any push, or my wave stinks. Only to have the reply add ballast or lead. Maybe some people just need to learn basic balance and weight distribution on the board?

[Prospersigman]

My local dealer just had 2 people back out of SE550 builds that are available now...one has an end August spray date and the other is the beginning of September. Boat boats were heavily optioned and well over $220k build price.

[mgswake]

I want both!! 220k that is steep. 2023 Supra hits 300k?

[SONIC]

I am always looking at boats in my down time it's just a hobby guess lol.
I've noticed the market starting to get more reasonable as more and more people start listing their boats. For a long time this year it's been true that a boat will sell pretty much regardless of the price. Now I'm noticing things staying listed longer and prices coming down a bit.
They are still crazy high, people who bought boats in 2015-2020 can still get more than they paid for it new I think but that's slowly stopping.

Problem is in my opinion that the new boats keep going up so fast it makes the used ones look like a deal.

For instance say you bought a 2021 mojo for 100k and decide to sell it.
The buyer has already priced a 2022 which is the same in pretty much every way at 115+ so when you list yours with 80 hours in like new condition at 105 hell that's a deal! And it really is a deal in comparison even though it's more than you paid for it brand new.
Carry that over a few years and a max that cost 70 out the door is suddenly worth 85 or 90.

I don't see that stopping if these price increases don't stop or at least slow down.