Gas prices summer 2022

[rhouse181]

Full disclosure, I work for an "energy" company...

The issues driving higher consumer gas prices at the pump are multifaceted and very little is influenced by the big suit sitting in the oval office. Sure macro policy by heads-of-state influence short term price volatility, but they don't create the base market fundamentals.

People tend to overlook the transportation and refining aspect of the equation. You can punch a bunch of new holes in the ground, but that won't help with insufficient take away capacity that handles both the liquids and associated gas. The majority of the new liquid and gas Permian pipes move incremental supply to export terminals, not domestic refineries. If you drill more, it will most likely end up on a boat. Since that boat is not built in the US, it cannot be routed to a US port or refinery. Policy and infrastructure decisions made long ago are the drivers...

Catalytic cracking capacity is also specific to the composition of crude. Refineries, especially along the gulf coast, have been built a long time ago (prior to the shale revolution) and are setup to process foreign grades that are imported from non-domestic producers. If we magically built pipelines that could reach these facilities, there would be significant CAPEX required to accommodate domestic crude composition. There are also many downstream by-product streams that are turned into secondary productions which would also be threatened if crude composition changed. These systems are designed to take a stable crude source / composition and roll over their engineered lifespan and there is no financial incentive for domestic producers to sink CAPEX to revamp their rusted old refineries.

And who's going to finance and build a new refinery in the US these days with the renewables / ESG push?!

Regardless of political stance or country of origin, reading sources from multiple perspectives can help to avoid a simpleton's fallacy...

[SONIC]

There is a lot of misunderstanding around this lease/permit topic..leasing land to drill in no way means readily available oil and gas wells. First a company must explore the land to determine if sufficient oil and gas exists (and it’s overall composition). Exploring costs money (go back to my post on investors)..

Once it’s determined to drill you need to get a permit..again, you need capital to drill. Once you have a well drilled you need a permit to extract the oil and gas (regulations…regulations…). Again, all this takes capital.

My family has mineral rights on 360 acres in the Bakken shale (north of Williston)..it’s been leased multiple times over the years, but never drilled on. For all I know it may never get drilled..

I'm of the opinion that the potus has an effect on the overall attitude toward investment in energy but I don't think the little stickers that show biden pointing to the gas price with a "I did that" catchphrase have any merit.

It's just your standard blame the guy you don't like mentality that's pervasive on both sides.

There's so much more going on with the price of gas than who is president that to blame it on one side or the other is a total fallacy IMO.
Those in the industry in this thread have already confirmed that.

No different than the meme's I've seen lately saying "you dumb libs thought trump was going to start world war 3, but nope it's Biden's fault"

It's just a hyper-focus on one tiny aspect of the global mess that we have all found ourselves in as though the other guy would just step in and say "thou shalt lower gas prices, and they rejoiced!"

I'm far from a biden supporter (or trump before him), I just don't like people getting so focused on who's the president that the lose focus on what's actually happening and why.

[zabooda]

Any politicians that say "Drill baby drill" will get my attention.

[MJHSupra]

I'm of the opinion that the potus has an effect on the overall attitude toward investment in energy but I don't think the little stickers that show biden pointing to the gas price with a "I did that" catchphrase have any merit.

It sure does when this happens on Day 1:

Federal Register - Executive Order 13990 of January 20, 2021 - Sec. 4. Arctic Refuge.

(a) In light of the alleged legal deficiencies underlying the program, including the inadequacy of the environmental review required by the National Environmental Policy Act, the Secretary of the Interior shall, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, place a temporary moratorium on all activities of the Federal Government relating to the implementation of the Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program, as established by the Record of Decision signed August 17, 2020, in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The Secretary shall review the program and, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, conduct a new, comprehensive analysis of the potential environmental impacts of the oil and gas program.

(b) In Executive Order 13754 of December 9, 2016 (Northern Bering Sea Climate Resilience), and in the Presidential Memorandum of December 20, 2016 (Withdrawal of Certain Portions of the United States Arctic Outer Continental Shelf From Mineral Leasing), President Obama withdrew areas in Arctic waters and the Bering Sea from oil and gas drilling and established the Northern Bering Sea Climate Resilience Area. Subsequently, the order was revoked and the memorandum was amended in Executive Order 13795 of April 28, 2017 (Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy). Pursuant to section 12(a) of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, 43 U.S.C. 1341(a), Executive Order 13754 and the Presidential Memorandum of December 20, 2016, are hereby reinstated in their original form, thereby restoring the original withdrawal of certain offshore areas in Arctic waters and the Bering Sea from oil and gas drilling

(c) The Attorney General may, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, provide notice of this order to any court with jurisdiction over pending litigation related to the Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other related programs, and may, in his discretion, request that the court stay the litigation or otherwise delay further litigation, or seek other appropriate relief consistent with this order, pending the completion of the actions described in subsection (a) of this section.


Sec. 6. Revoking the March 2019 Permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline.

(a) On March 29, 2019, the President granted to TransCanada Keystone Pipeline, L.P. a Presidential permit (the “Permit”) to construct, connect, operate, and maintain pipeline facilities at the international border of the United States and Canada (the “Keystone XL pipeline”), subject to express conditions and potential revocation in the President's sole discretion. The Permit is hereby revoked in accordance with Article 1(1) of the Permit.

(b) In 2015, following an exhaustive review, the Department of State and the President determined that approving the proposed Keystone XL pipeline would not serve the U.S. national interest. That analysis, in addition to concluding that the significance of the proposed pipeline for our energy security and economy is limited, stressed that the United States must prioritize the development of a clean energy economy, which will in turn create good jobs. The analysis further concluded that approval of the proposed pipeline would undermine U.S. climate leadership by undercutting the credibility and influence of the United States in urging other countries to take ambitious climate action.

(c) Climate change has had a growing effect on the U.S. economy, with climate-related costs increasing over the last 4 years. Extreme weather events and other climate-related effects have harmed the health, safety, and security of the American people and have increased the urgency for combatting climate change and accelerating the transition toward a clean energy economy. The world must be put on a sustainable climate pathway to protect Americans and the domestic economy from harmful climate impacts, and to create well-paying union jobs as part of the climate solution.

(d) The Keystone XL pipeline disserves the U.S. national interest. The United States and the world face a climate crisis. That crisis must be met with action on a scale and at a speed commensurate with the need to avoid setting the world on a dangerous, potentially catastrophic, climate trajectory. At home, we will combat the crisis with an ambitious plan to build back better, designed to both reduce harmful emissions and create good clean-energy jobs. Our domestic efforts must go hand in hand with U.S. diplomatic engagement. Because most greenhouse gas emissions originate beyond our borders, such engagement is more necessary and urgent than ever. The United States must be in a position to exercise vigorous climate leadership in order to achieve a significant increase in global climate action and put the world on a sustainable climate pathway. Leaving the Keystone XL pipeline permit in place would not be consistent with my Administration's economic and climate imperatives.

[SONIC]

You're just proving my point here.
There's about 100,000 factors from drilling rights to investment to societal pressures to war that play into what's happening but it's all the administration's fault, yep.

[HFarr]

You can issue all the drilling permits you want too, but when you limit the places they can drill, then they go unused.

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[larry_arizona]

You can issue all the drilling permits you want too, but when you limit the places they can drill, then they go unused.

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Exactly why right sided sources need to be added. All sides need to be considered or else you get narrative.

Peppermint Patty got lit up on the no drilling on public land despite more permits.


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[2in2out]

Exactly why right sided sources need to be added. All sides need to be considered or else you get narrative.

Peppermint Patty got lit up on the no drilling on public land despite more permits.


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Most drilling occurs on state or private land where federal regulations have limited reach.

Source: https://apple.news/ADXPMHD3NQsSj6gVmJO8hnA

Quote: “….it's important to note the difference between new leases for drilling on public lands and existing production. Most drilling in the U.S. takes place on state or private land, which hasn't been restricted by the administration's policies.”

“Brett Hartl, the government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity, also noted more drilling permits were approved in the first year of Biden's presidency than during his predecessor's first 365 days. The center found the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands last year, outpacing the Trump administration's first-year total of 2,658.”

“According to the latest data set from the Bureau of Land Management, there were 9,173 approved permits to drill as of December 31, 2021.”

“Naatz, from the Independent Petroleum Association of America, also said that further driving up U.S. oil drilling wouldn't have an "immediate effect" on gas prices.”

Source: https://apple.news/AkMY50fmeRfSkokGeiHwjWg

(I actually know the writer of this article. He leans slightly right of middle)

“Investor pressure did much to stall a rebound in production, and continues to do so. Investors prefer that the oil companies spend their money on dividends and stock buybacks instead of new field development.
In the meantime, OPEC+ is in no rush to bail out the world.”

“The Republican claim that Biden has “crippled” U.S. energy production is routinely premised on two Biden administration actions: canceling the Keystone XL Pipeline and pausing new oil and gas leasing on public lands.
As I’ve noted before:
Even if Biden hadn’t canceled the Keystone XL and it had proceeded as planned, it would not be delivering any oil to the U.S until 2023 at the earliest. There are a lot of reasons for high gas prices. Biden’s decision on that pipeline isn’t one of them and has exactly nothing to do with the price of gas today.
The pause on leasing only applies to new leasing and does nothing to prohibit or even limit drilling on millions of acres of public land that, according to the Bureau of Land Management, is currently available for development. Biden isn’t responsible for oil company resistance to drill. Investors are.
The main congressional Republican initiative right now to alleviate pain at the pump is to “push for expanded domestic energy production” by reversing those two actions. But neither action is hindering domestic energy production now (and, by the way, oil flowing through the Keystone XL would not be domestic but Canadian). If anything expands domestic energy production anytime soon, it will be oil selling at (checks Sunday morning price) $115.70 per barrel, not vapid boilerplate Republican talking points.”

Source: https://apple.news/AMy6eBdkURRiaJatYAJcsTA

“Barkindo said after the dinner that attendees discussed how shale producers were focused on delivering profits to shareholders instead of pouring more cash into new drilling.
“This massive under-investment requires us to revisit that,” Barkindo said. “This is up to the companies themselves and their boards ... but there’s this general realization that something needs to be done” to address the new circumstances, he said.

“There is no capacity in the world that could replace 7 million barrels per day,” Barkindo earlier told reporters at the conference. “We have no control over current events, geopolitics, and this is dictating the pace of the market.”
Russia has been an integral part of the OPEC+ alliance that halted a COVID-19 pandemic-driven crash in oil prices through a 2020 agreement to cut 10 million barrels per day (bpd) from the group’s production.”

Source: https://apple.news/AjxhyVZBNSQmtJk_UW3hi2g

“Nearly two years ago, as the pandemic’s lockdowns and other restrictions reached their height and crushed demand for fossil fuels, scientists and energy experts saw an opportunity to accelerate the transition to cleaner fuels. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month — and the growing pressure to reject oil and gas from Russia — are jeopardizing global energy supplies, which have suffered in recent years from output that had leveled off.
“The oil market already was tight going into the Ukraine crisis,” said John Hess, CEO of Houston oil producer Hess Corp., calling on investors and governments to recognize the need for more oil and gas projects. “We’ve had five years of underinvestment; we’re paying for it now.”

But energy leaders say the war is responsible for the biggest energy crisis in decades, with crude prices rising to about $120 a barrel on Monday.
Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, said the oil supply emergency stemming from Russia’s war with Ukraine promises to be “a game-changer” for the world’s energy transition. Supplies are plummeting at a time when global demand for petroleum is returning to pre-COVID levels and is expected to more than double by 2045, he said.”

Also, the land management agencies have a statutary responsibility to review NEPA impacts every 5 years for resources under their purview. Under the last administration, some of the NEPA evaluations were disregarded and shelved, oil and minerals under the department of interior specifically.

The temporary pause in new drilling permits was to allow for NEPA review during an existing 9000+ amount of permits, or otherwise a “lull” in permitting due to lack of market condition as explained by a Bureau of Land Management resource advisor I have covered with. This temporary pause in permitting was court challenged as referenced above, and the admin lost in both cases even though NEPA review was statutorily required.

Quoting the administrative directive is great, but without context It allows for misinterpretation and abuse by bad actors.

Even the OPEC+ execs ( which operate conservatively) admit they were poorly positioned for the “not so black swan event” of Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine.

Shareholders in American production were scared of risk from pre-pandemic price drops, and weren’t authorizing new drilling projects even though a surplus of permits were available on federal land, and minimal federal regulation exists for drilling on state and public land.

As stated before, shareholder priorities had switched to emissions and methane recovery over drilling because gas prices were historically low, and social pressures were dictating such.

Again, context takes the blame away from the admin and puts it on the industry placating shareholders who pull the strings.


Making my new SA build come true!!!

[larry_arizona]

Brett Hartl works for the center of biological
Diversity which is yet another left bias source.

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-p...cal-diversity/

You are certainly entitled to your opinion on the matter. At the end of the day, it is what it is. Enjoy the summer, $60-$100 won’t make or break my lake time.

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[Jason1975]

You can hand out all the leases to drill you want, but when the political future is uncertain, and you know the federal gov't isn't going to let you build the roads in and out, going to regulate everything you touch, what company on earth is going to invest in that capital. So yes, it does have to do with who is in charge. Its simple common sense that i think many are trying to complicate. Its not that complicated. One party has been hostile to the oil and gas industry and there is no way i would invest in capital if i don't think i can do anything with it once i spend millions on capital to get it out of the ground.

Oil and gas companies knew that Trump was going to help them and us become energy independent. You have someone new come in "biden" and on day one he cancels the pipeline. That kind of uncertainty directs companies investment in capex, opex etc... Its NOT complex. Stop trying to make it complex.

in addition, a federal judge just shut down one of the biggest refineries off the coast. Biden has decided NOT to appeal the decision because, well he agree's with the decision. So yah, tell me again how who is in charge isn't affecting prices.......!!!!

furthermore, this big push for electric vehicles still doesn't solve the problem. Lithium and cobalt are the 2 key minerals needed to make the batteries. Russia is the worlds 2nd biggest supplier for Cobalt, and China is the 3rd largest producer of lithium. Along with other countries like Afganistan and Chile. So again, tell me how this solves any energy problem.