boat market 2024

[sandm]

anybody else got any predictions?

onlyinboards is at the highest level I have seen at over 5700 boats with 55% being 2023-2024 models and 15% 2021-2022 models. that's 70% of the OI market in a 4 year span that encompass the crazy rise of wakeboat pricing.

skiers announces best deals on new boats in a decade with discounts and covered service before boat show season even kicks off.

'bu quarterly report end of september shows(and I bet next quarter ending end of dec is even worse):
15% decrease in sales and 25% decrease in units sold.
they are forecasting net sales decline percentage "in the high teens to low twenties year-over-year for 2024"

mastercraft sales down last quarter almost 40% and overall profits after expenses down 66%.

there's currently a couple 2020 atx22's and kaiyens with +/-100hrs for sale for less than we were quoted new which likely hasn't happened since 2020.

[MJHSupra]

I assume smaller margins for dealers doing boat show season. Probably tossing in a few more perks. It will be cut-throat dealer vs dealer on the different brands.

Supra is probably in a good position b/c of the limited number of units when compared to MC or BU. Private vs Public company thing too.

Slower, but not a dead market. There are still buyers out there, but the new boat buyer every-year or every-other-year crowd is having a hard time deciding to take those big payments now vs something 1 - 2 years ago of cheaper $$.

Used market takes a hit and is a lot more competitive. Back to more normal markets when compared to the Covid era.

Laugh when I still read about peeps talking about ‘crashing boat markets’ on social media. But peeps do not talk about it much anymore b/c it’s winter.

Should be interesting to see what happens to interest rates due to 2024 being an election year.

Rising build costs and prices SUCK b/c now we are stuck with them.

Our local dealer in TN still has 23s.


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[larry_arizona]

The market is going to suck until interest rates drop significantly. Inflationary damage is done and no discounts will truly offset it.

Inflation has slowed, but the two massive inflationary years of 21 and 22 are permanent damage and we will never get back to previous pricing.


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[MJHSupra]

BU and MC are pretty strong companies from a balance sheet perspective. Cash, low debt, and they reinvest back into the company. They can ride these ‘blips’ out.

I used to follow them more often. Not a buyer of the stocks b/c there are better opportunities out there.


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[htfit]

My guess is it will come down to how many people are forced to sell. I don't know how much money the average person puts down as a down payment, but my guess it is not much. I think the issue is not the rates, but the lack of "equity" ppl have in the boat at lower values. How many ppl can take a 10, 15, 20k hit between their loan balance, so the better option is to keep making payments.

It will be the people that are forced to sell or no longer can afford to make the 1k+ monthly payments when the market starts going down. But who knows that is just my thought.

I would think the dealerships will reduce prices first and then the used market will follow which obviously we are already are starting to see.

It would be great if there was not a market crash and nobody lost their boat, but has the market ever gone up and up and never come down?

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[HFarr]

That last part reminds me of some lyrics in "Spinning Wheels" by Blood Sweat and Tears for some reason.

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[larry_arizona]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231220/1b2690bef1777f7967f2fde4591308f7.jpg
Even with a typical Supra 20% discount, this is still $200k


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[sandm]

Our local dealer in TN still has 23s.


OI shows over 2000 boats for sale from 2023 with 0-5hrs. Wonder how that would compare with pre covid years when the market was "normal".

cash buyers and people with large sums of disposable will continue to buy new but my gut is as larry calls out, interest rates remain over 5-6% it'll sideline most financed people looking to upgrade especially those pre-2021.

a mojo owner from 2019 might have a $500 note. that supra larry posted even with 25% down on a 6% note is $1300(20 yrs). that's a pretty healthy jump.

[larry_arizona]

I am by no means wealthy, but who would pay cash for a big purchase of a toy, say $200k?

When interest rates were sub 4%, I would rather keep my 200k working making 8-12%.


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[MJHSupra]

OI shows over 2000 boats for sale from 2023 with 0-5hrs. Wonder how that would compare with pre covid years when the market was "normal".

Good point. I wonder too. OI is a good source for that kind of data.

In Knoxville from when I bought my first 2007 Supra to now, there are a heck of a lot more wake boats on the lake.


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[BigOrange]

I know we can get that averaged over the long term in the stock market, but if you have a relatively low risk way of getting 8% return, I'm all ears.

[larry_arizona]

I know we can get that averaged over the long term in the stock market, but if you have a relatively low risk way of getting 8% return, I'm all ears.

401k


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[VA LSV]

401k


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Especially if your employer matches. That's free money!

[brad460]

I have some close friends who work at Mercury- From a boat market perspective the 150HP and lower HP range markets have completely crashed- Layoffs on those production lines. The 150 HP and up continue to stay strong.
Obviously the affluent folks are still buying, but everyone else no.

I personally will likely never buy a new wakeboard boat…We bought new in 2021 and are now priced out of the market (not because we can’t afford, but because I won’t spend $100k + for something I use 20 hrs a year).

[Mxmark4]

I have some close friends who work at Mercury- From a boat market perspective the 150HP and lower HP range markets have completely crashed- Layoffs on those production lines. The 150 HP and up continue to stay strong.
Obviously the affluent folks are still buying, but everyone else no.

I personally will likely never buy a new wakeboard boat…We bought new in 2021 and are now priced out of the market (not because we can’t afford, but because I won’t spend $100k + for something I use 20 hrs a year).

Pretty wild only use your boat 1 week a year lol

[mgswake]

I put 20 hours on my boat from august 2022-October 2022 while I trailered it. I only put 30 hours on my boat this year, but used it April to November. I have it on a lift now at my dock, so I put it in the water, fill ballast, ride in the cove next to mine, drain ballast, back to lift. Take family cruises around the lake as well. But, I don’t have to drive all the way across the lake from ramp to cove.
I also have a 11 month old and a 3 year old so it’s hard to get out more than 1-2 times a week.

To the OP, prices are out of hand. Too many unneeded comfort features, high interest rates, and inflation are the main issues in my opinion.

[HFarr]

I put 20 hours on my boat from august 2022-October 2022 while I trailered it. I only put 30 hours on my boat this year, but used it April to November. I have it on a lift now at my dock, so I put it in the water, fill ballast, ride in the cove next to mine, drain ballast, back to lift. Take family cruises around the lake as well. But, I don’t have to drive all the way across the lake from ramp to cove.
I also have a 11 month old and a 3 year old so it’s hard to get out more than 1-2 times a week.

To the OP, prices are out of hand. Too many unneeded comfort features, high interest rates, and inflation are the main issues in my opinion.When those kiddo's get to be pre-teen to early teen ages, you will be putting on almost 20 hours in a weekend with them and their friends! Trust me!

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[Yzfguy06]

I have some close friends who work at Mercury- From a boat market perspective the 150HP and lower HP range markets have completely crashed- Layoffs on those production lines. The 150 HP and up continue to stay strong.
Obviously the affluent folks are still buying, but everyone else no.

I personally will likely never buy a new wakeboard boat…We bought new in 2021 and are now priced out of the market (not because we can’t afford, but because I won’t spend $100k + for something I use 20 hrs a year).

That has been the story for most of the year tho. The “ inexpensive” stuff has been sitting more and the big dollar stuff is still relatively moving. That was the story I got when i was out the boat show in march. It took my local dealer 6 months to sell the boat I was going to buy in march because we couldn’t agree on a reasonable price. Now they have 23 still on the ground with 24s rolling in.

[sandm]

To the OP, prices are out of hand. Too many unneeded comfort features, high interest rates, and inflation are the main issues in my opinion.

spot on imo...