When Is the next economic correction happening?

[Bret Cole]

when does everybody think the next economic correction is going to happen because this all can't last forever.

[larry_arizona]

Inflation is rapidly occurring, this might slow down the stock market a bit.


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[UNSTUCK]

when does everybody think the next economic correction is going to happen because this all can't last forever.

It'll happen once all the Californians finish moving to Utah. (Insert your state if you feel the need.)

[zabooda]

A major correction will occur when companies can't get their product to the market like what we are seeing with parts and transportation. Actually, a recession is in order with the economic system being unstable.

[larry_arizona]

A major correction will occur when companies can't get their product to the market like what we are seeing with parts and transportation. Actually, a recession is in order with the economic system being unstable.

This exact thing is driving instant inflation. The auto industry is effectively shutdown for the next 3 months.

Step one, eliminate the federal unemployment bonus.

Step two, get the ports in California to full speed and catch up.

With people back to work instead of sitting home playing call of duty, perhaps semi conductors demand will ease.

Domino effect of the continued pandemic.

My theory is those who want a vaccine have already got it, those that don’t want it are comfortable about surviving it if they get the virus, all this equals time to open states and work 100%.




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[zabooda]

Couldn't agree with you more Larry. The Colonial pipeline shutdown doesn't help but in 10 years the Green Deal will have it shut down permanently anyway. I'm glad I have pretty much what I want for awhile. I just hope I don't need parts.

[sandm]

It'll happen once all the Californians finish moving to Utah. (Insert your state if you feel the need.)

every other car on the road here is cali. they are coming in droves. 4.5hrs to LA from vegas and friday/sunday it's 10-12hrs. largest chevron in the country is in primm NV and their business has been nuts the last 2 months(we supply them with all their goods for sale but gas). read the other day for the first time cali population dropped year over year.


Larry- i could not agree more with your post.... sad thing for us here in nevada- the teachers union isn't pushing for a return to school. someone needs to stop the union nonsense... with teachers not going back, kids won't go back. kids don't go back, parents won't go back. at some point they need to say "you don't report to work on monday? no job!".... but that won't happen.

[zabooda]

With a no mask requirement, I'd expect everyone to show up at work in person on Monday or get immediate pink slips. That includes the lost Californians working from home somewhere else besides at home. Time to ramp up.

[larry_arizona]

Great news and it finally makes sense.

Get back to work.

I am so tired of working from home.


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[sandm]

I am so tired of working from home.


my gf is just the opposite. she goes into the office on tuesdays but works from home sun/mon/wed/thu. she loves it and hopes that it doesn't go back. it's been great for mileage on the car and gas savings. the downside are she's spending more monies running our AC all day and the dog has become quite attached to her being at home all day.

[larry_arizona]

Absolutely understand why people like the WFH, I am just more old school and prefer the office environment that keeps work at work and home at home.

I like the drive to work to ramp up and the drive home to wind down.

Just engrained.

Love my family, love my dog, love my house, just not 24/7 LOL.


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[larry_arizona]

I also suspect that uncontrolled government spending and increased tax is going kill the market and economy even when we do get out of the pandemic.


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[Holdmybeer]

Preach Larry......;)

I know here in Ohio we are finally getting back to some "normal". Mask are officially gone June 2nd, and full re-opening.

Hope they cancel the "welfare" employment and get people back to work. We have laid off workers from part shortages making over their normal pay right now to have May and June off. It is going to be hard to get them to return after July re-tool. They know coming back we are speeding up also, which makes matters worse.

[SONIC]

I got an email from the state (TN) where they have a new program to get people back to work.
If you have an employee who won't come back to work you can let them (TN) know and they will kill their unemployment benefits to force them back to work.
I'm all for it.

[larry_arizona]

I got an email from the state (TN) where they have a new program to get people back to work.
If you have an employee who won't come back to work you can let them (TN) know and they will kill their unemployment benefits to force them back to work.
I'm all for it.

This should have been rule #1 from the start of the federal unemployment benefit.

Rule#2: federal unemployment plus state unemployment can’t exceed your normal pay rate.


Example: we have a plant in Utah, our line associates make $15 an hour or $31200 annually based on 2080 hours.

Fed plus state unemployment was paying them $42000 to stay home at the start of the pandemic and is paying the $32400 now.

This example doesn’t include that there was no tax on the federal unemployment making it probably closer to $50k+ annually


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[SONIC]

This should have been rule #1 from the start of the federal unemployment benefit.

Rule#2: federal unemployment plus state unemployment can’t exceed your normal pay rate.


Example: we have a plant in Utah, our line associates make $15 an hour or $31200 annually based on 2080 hours.

Fed plus state unemployment was paying them $42000 to stay home at the start of the pandemic and is paying the $32400 now.

This example doesn’t include that there was no tax on the federal unemployment making it probably closer to $50k+ annually


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Yep, same deal with $15 minimum wage. No one seems to care state by state or county by county what the cost of living actually is.
Around here $15/hr is a decent job. It's not great by any means but it's far from minimum wage. You bump the minimum to 15 and you have to bump the 15's to 25 to compete and that's a huge drain on small business IMO.

NYC, DC, LA etc you can't live on 15/hr if you try. Here it's nothing fancy but you can still afford to live a perfectly normal life on 15/hr.

[larry_arizona]

In Michigan the help wanted signs are incredible.

Local McDonald’s offering $14 an hour AND college tuition assistance. Pre pandemic last year the same McDonald’s was offering $9.50.

Never seen so many high paying entry level jobs.

Fed ex warehouse offering $20 an hour to start plus full bennies. Crazy money for a 18 yo out of highschool. $42k with a highschool diploma.


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[Holdmybeer]

In Michigan the help wanted signs are incredible.

Local McDonald’s offering $14 an hour AND college tuition assistance. Pre pandemic last year the same McDonald’s was offering $9.50.

Never seen so many high paying entry level jobs.

Fed ex warehouse offering $20 an hour to start. Crazy money for a 18 yo out of highschool. $42k with a highschool diploma.


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This just has not trickled down yet. Soon enough the cost of living will increase to match and $15 will be the new $8.25. The middle-class wages will stay the same and make them the new poverty line and the top 10% will shrink to top 1% and the balance of wealth and jobs will be completely off.

Going from $8 to $15 is a 40% pay raise. But I won't see that kind of increase but inflation will. Enjoy it while you can I guess, but we will all be broke if this keeps up.

[larry_arizona]

This just has not trickled down yet. Soon enough the cost of living will increase to match and $15 will be the new $8.25. The middle-class wages will stay the same and make them the new poverty line and the top 10% will shrink to top 1% and the balance of wealth and jobs will be completely off.

Going from $8 to $15 is a 40% pay raise. But I won't see that kind of increase but inflation will. Enjoy it while you can I guess, but we will all be broke if this keeps up.

You are 1000% correct.

When the dust settles, we will all have a size able pay cut due to inflation.

Simple way to say it is wealth redistribution.


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[RC_Hinojosa]

Doge to tha moon!!!! [emoji191][emoji573][emoji286]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210514/44c055ff365f2f15cbab13bfdaf99a1d.jpg

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[rdlangston13]

This should have been rule #1 from the start of the federal unemployment benefit.

Rule#2: federal unemployment plus state unemployment can’t exceed your normal pay rate.


Example: we have a plant in Utah, our line associates make $15 an hour or $31200 annually based on 2080 hours.

Fed plus state unemployment was paying them $42000 to stay home at the start of the pandemic and is paying the $32400 now.

This example doesn’t include that there was no tax on the federal unemployment making it probably closer to $50k+ annually


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Ill modify step two to say that unemployment should not exceed 75% of your previous working years earnings. I would not need 100% to quit and stay home, if I was over 85% of my pay to stay home i'd be gone lol

[Ganig1949]

i am just waiting for next crypto boom

[Bula]

The war in Ukraine and instability in the world can change everything. Prices are rising, many refugees, alternative sources of energy etc. I’ve never been interested in politics or economy, but now I have to (it's actually kind of interesting:D).