Drought out west

[2in2out]

Went to our usual lake the other day, and water level is 10ft less than what it was Sept 26th. Down about 70ft and only measurable snow was about 1-2” in the shaded aspects. Spring thaw may bring the lake up 3-4ft. Not sure if I’ll be able to launch after June if we don’t get some good moisture in. I guess it’s the nature of boating in the high desert and Sierra’s.

Looks like early season close to home, then fight Tahoe traffic or head west to Sierra foothill lakes as they are bigger and hold more volume.

Local choices early season:
Lahontan Res. (30 min)
Pyramid Lake (30 min)
Frenchman’s Res. (45 min)
Stampede Res. (Got reservations here mid June-July; 30 min)
Jackson Meadows Res. (45 min)
Donner Lake (40 min)
Tahoe (30-40 min)
Antelope Res. (1.5 hrs)
Almanor (2 hrs)
Bullards Bar (2hrs)
Englebright (3 hrs)
Folsom (3 hrs)
Oroville (3.5 hrs)
Shasta (4-4.5 hrs)

Anyone else dreading drought in the west right now?


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[sandm]

since snowpack comes from various areas it depends on where the person you are asking boats.... that said.....

they will always take care of mead so not real worried about that lake. I have heard tho that the cut in powell will be lucky to see 30 days of use this year due to a depleted snowpack in the rockies. they did get a MAJOR dumping last week and haven't seen new projections for this year.
gf's father works for the irrigation company in boise and they are always saying it's bad but not any worse than some other years.

I do believe it'll be a lighter water year this year tho in most areas out west. I don't believe there are any more boat sales going on as manuf. are producing roughly the same numbers as years past but I do believe that more boats are being used more often which coupled with lower water will make an interesting year for sure....

[MJHSupra]

I just got back from snowboarding in Utah. At Solitude, Big Cottonwood Canyon, there are apps 320" of snow. Locals say it should be around 500".

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[zabooda]

Look up the seasonal levels. On dammed reservoirs, the levels are pretty consistent and it isn't until mid-May or later that levels can be trended. The local mountain snow pack can say a lot on the levels. It is good to have contingencies but it may be still early.

[2in2out]

Look up the seasonal levels. On dammed reservoirs, the levels are pretty consistent and it isn't until mid-May or later that levels can be trended. The local mountain snow pack can say a lot on the levels. It is good to have contingencies but it may be still early.

I get briefings from our National Weather Service office and last week had a briefing about snowpack, runoff, and expected drought. Currently we are at 43-53% of normal in snowpack with 20% below seasonal norms on surface and subsurface soil moisture. We would need to see 5-7 atmospheric river events for snow pack to meet the 25 year average, and several more to fill the reservoirs.

Current long range prediction models are predicting less than normal spring moisture and monsoonal flow with sustained high pressure ridges staying stagnant over much of the west, but locally causing gradient wind conditions. This indicates increased evaporation from water sources and vegetation.

No model is accurate, but they are useful. My 40 yrs of experience knows there is no recovery to normal until next winter. I took some pics of our fav lake, but I didn’t get enough shoreline in the shot to represent the deficit.

I haven’t been privy to the drought predictions for regions other than Northern and Southern California, and the Great Basin, so I can’t speak to them, but the outlook locally is grim on the water sports front.


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[2in2out]

I do believe it'll be a lighter water year this year tho in most areas out west. I don't believe there are any more boat sales going on as manuf. are producing roughly the same numbers as years past but I do believe that more boats are being used more often which coupled with lower water will make an interesting year for sure....

We had two reservoirs shut down last summer. One was because of tribal land closures, and the other the water level dropped below the ramps with people getting stuck beach launching. It was mayhem every weekend on the lakes. Luckily we can go mid-week, but even then ramps and lakes were congested.

If our usual lake doesn’t get 10-15 feet this spring, the ramp end will be exposed by July 1, and it’ll be shut down.

[rockymtnsurfer]

We are 90% full right now. Below average, but spring is a wet time up in the mountains. If it continues to snow on and off we should be fine. The real deal breaker here are the afternoon storms we use to have everyday all summer long. They are pretty much gone, or unheard of. These storms are what have always kept our grounds from drying out, rivers full, which lead to our reservoirs being full. Fingers crossed those storms will come back someday, otherwise our 4 month boating will be down to 2-3.

[Zog]

since snowpack comes from various areas it depends on where the person you are asking boats.... that said.....

they will always take care of mead so not real worried about that lake. I have heard tho that the cut in powell will be lucky to see 30 days of use this year due to a depleted snowpack in the rockies. they did get a MAJOR dumping last week and haven't seen new projections for this year.
gf's father works for the irrigation company in boise and they are always saying it's bad but not any worse than some other years.

I do believe it'll be a lighter water year this year tho in most areas out west. I don't believe there are any more boat sales going on as manuf. are producing roughly the same numbers as years past but I do believe that more boats are being used more often which coupled with lower water will make an interesting year for sure....

Lake Powell is in dire shape. Based on the latest USBR operations projection, the cut will not open at all this year. The Antelope Point public ramp will be high and dry all year long as will the Bullfrog Marina main ramp. Supposedly the Wahweap and Stateline launches will be fine as will the Antelope Point concierge ramp. The Bullfrog Executive Ramp and Halls Crossing Ramps should remain operational and rumor has it there is a contingency plan in place for the Bullfrog main ramp to add a provisional launch. Unfortunately, if the state keeps the ferry running between Bullfrog and Halls, one lane of the Halls ramp is all that is accessible there and two lanes at Bullfrog executive will be available. For the hundreds of boats launching there on a weekend, it will certainly be a trial. There are also some problems in large bays with submerged features coming very close to the water, with reports of over 20 boats hitting the top of a plateau before the park service marked it last week.

In northern Utah, all reservoirs are holding back water right now in hopes of preserving something for irrigation, but if we don't have a wet spring/summer, we will be in dire straights and there will be no northern Utah boating by mid August.

It will be an interesting summer.

[larry_arizona]

Lake Powell is in dire shape. Based on the latest USBR operations projection, the cut will not open at all this year. The Antelope Point public ramp will be high and dry all year long as will the Bullfrog Marina main ramp. Supposedly the Wahweap and Stateline launches will be fine as will the Antelope Point concierge ramp. The Bullfrog Executive Ramp and Halls Crossing Ramps should remain operational and rumor has it there is a contingency plan in place for the Bullfrog main ramp to add a provisional launch. Unfortunately, if the state keeps the ferry running between Bullfrog and Halls, one lane of the Halls ramp is all that is accessible there and two lanes at Bullfrog executive will be available. For the hundreds of boats launching there on a weekend, it will certainly be a trial. There are also some problems in large bays with submerged features coming very close to the water, with reports of over 20 boats hitting the top of a plateau before the park service marked it last week.

In northern Utah, all reservoirs are holding back water right now in hopes of preserving something for irrigation, but if we don't have a wet spring/summer, we will be in dire straights and there will be no northern Utah boating by mid August.

It will be an interesting summer.

Is Bear lake a northern Utah option?


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[Zog]

Is Bear lake a northern Utah option?


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Bear Lake is always an option. It is deep. However, the lake recedes from shore significantly and the marinas and state launches can dry up. If that happens you may have to hire a farmer with a tractor to help you launch your boat.

[larry_arizona]

Bear Lake is always an option. It is deep. However, the lake recedes from shore significantly and the marinas and state launches can dry up. If that happens you may have to hire a farmer with a tractor to help you launch your boat.

Snowmobiled many times out of bear lake or beaver creek and always wondered how bear lake was in the summer.

I recall a wake boat tragedy on that lake 7-8 years ago, rogue storm flipped a wakeboat. Water was still cold.


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[UNSTUCK]

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS/AWS_PLOTS/basinCharts/POR/WTEQ/assocHUCut3/state_of_utah.html

I like this graph and being able to click on each year to see its water. Kind of puts it in perspective for me. This year is not great. It's not the worst either. 2010 was below average all the way till April then kicked up a bit. Then look what happened in 2011! Then tanked again in 2012. Just as likely we'll get hammered next year.

[996scott]

Snowmobiled many times out of bear lake or beaver creek and always wondered how bear lake was in the summer.

I recall a wake boat tragedy on that lake 7-8 years ago, rogue storm flipped a wakeboat. Water was still cold.


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Bear lake can turn VERY UGLY, VERY QUICK! It's a big beautiful lake but the wind comes in and you better be prepared to high tail it out of there fast. I know several people that have had very close calls on Bear Lake.

I use this website to look at the last 5 years or so on a graph for Lake Powell as well as Mead and several other lakes in the west. Just click on the blue colored "graph" tab to see the lakes they have data for. Utah is below average for snow pack so far this year so i'm expecting the lakes to be down quite a bit. :(

http://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/

[sandm]

http://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/

good stuff scott. used to use a similar page for boise for their 3 reservoirs when I lived there. to unstuck's comment they varied from year to year. this year might be a bad one but next year could be epic.

I have heard from many that powell will be hurtin this year but in looking at the graph it's not horrid. yet. it'll all depend on how much they divert to keep mead happy since that water is owned by cali/arizona/mexico.

[zabooda]

Looks like extending launches should be in budgets.

[Zog]

Bear lake can turn VERY UGLY, VERY QUICK! It's a big beautiful lake but the wind comes in and you better be prepared to high tail it out of there fast. I know several people that have had very close calls on Bear Lake.

I use this website to look at the last 5 years or so on a graph for Lake Powell as well as Mead and several other lakes in the west. Just click on the blue colored "graph" tab to see the lakes they have data for. Utah is below average for snow pack so far this year so i'm expecting the lakes to be down quite a bit. :(

http://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/

I second the comments on Bear Lake. It is cold until about mid-July, but never really gets much higher than low 70s. The water is beautiful though and there are lots of restaurants, but none on the water due to the shallow shoreline features. The wind picks up nearly every afternoon around 3 and kicks up some massive waves sometimes. There is a drowning there nearly every year from someone on a floatie who doesn't pay attention and is blown out far from shore and dies trying to swim back. The boat accident 7-8 years ago was in June just after the ice cleared and a family was trying to get some time in on their Nautique before boating started in earnest. Water was in the 50s and 4 died.

The database is good. It only shows history and current conditions though. USBR does projections for future flows based on Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and all the upstream reservoirs and shows real problems this summer and into the next one.
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/images/PowellElevations.png

Castle Rock Cut bottoms out at 3580. Halls launch (the deepest in the lake) is done at 3550. USBR projects 3550 in December under the most likely scenario.

Not a good water year.