R COVID pricing premiums receding?

[Isaguel]

I am on the market for a couple of Side x sides since this spring. Been looking at the CF moto Z-force 800EX. Like everything else during COVID, it was impossible to find one and if you found a dealer with any ATX sideXside, they would not budge from MRSP, my local dealer told me they would likely not be able to get one until may or June!
Been looking again and find extensive stock and dealers who are even selling at discounts.
Found this Polaris RZR 900 at a very reasonable price, in stock at discount:

2020 Polaris® RZR® S 900

Retail Price$14,999.00
Sale Price$13,515.00

That's almost 1500 off. That was impossible in the spring. I've also seen a wide variety of used Wakeboats on Boattrader and some price drops.
Which begs the question: is this just a winter blip that will pick back up in the spring or is the COVID premium stating to recede?

[sandm]

my 02 as I was discussing with my neighbor who wants to sell his 18ft 4winns into a bigger runabout..
I think those that could afford to buy things have and those that couldn't still can't. if covid is still rampant in the spring into summer and no virus plans yet pricing will hold steady to drop a little as you are seeing. if covid breaks and the country starts to open up again I see a glut of used stuff hitting the market.

I know of 2 families that bought high$$ wakeboats in the mid100's in 2020 that are selling this spring. their push is they got a summer out of them, enjoyed it, but not what they want to do long term so selling in hopes that covid is on the downslide and they can get back to traveling.
my sis has a friend looking for a 4-person utv. same experience as you during the summer with pricing at or higher than msrp and no real inventory. he now has a bunch to pick from and has seen up to 10% discounts off msrp on 25k machines.

seems on onlyinboards some people have started pricing at more normal prices but still a lot that are stupid priced. if market drops and pricing recedes I see people walking away from boat deposits to buy 1 year old used and the new market becoming stagnant middle of 2021. If I was skiers, I'd try to get all those I can into the dealer hands to get delivery done.

[Isaguel]

my 02 as I was discussing with my neighbor who wants to sell his 18ft 4winns into a bigger runabout..
I think those that could afford to buy things have and those that couldn't still can't. if covid is still rampant in the spring into summer and no virus plans yet pricing will hold steady to drop a little as you are seeing. if covid breaks and the country starts to open up again I see a glut of used stuff hitting the market.


OK, but I think that sounds somewhat counterintuitive. If the vaccines have the effectiveness we hope for, and infectivity and hospitalizations start dropping, there is going to be a surge in confidence, more investments from people and companies who have been waiting on the sidelines. I would then predict increased hiring which leads to increase in disposable income, increased consumer confidence, which would hold prices steady. The opposite would be true if for some reason COVID remains uncontrolled and hospitalizations and death rates do not show improvement.

[larry_arizona]

People are itching to spend money....an effective vaccine and return to normalcy will open entertainment, air travel and restaurant industries.

That said, 2020 saw a 355% increase in boat loans, most of that will shift back to normal also.

Some who bought boats this year may like it and stick with it. But the majority of the newbs will bail, sell and take the loss.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

what larry said. if things go back to whatever the new normal is, "toys" will not show an uptick but will normalize.
those that are unemployed or can't afford these toys now will go back to whatever they were doing pre-covid and it likely won't be investing in these toys or they would already have one.

either way I hope that skiers, tige and the such didn't/don't add capacity to start churning them out to some artificial demand from 2020. might leave a few boats on the table that could have been sold but won't push production to start cutting corners and lose q/c.

[Isaguel]

What u are positing is that market saturation due to COVID related surge in buying in 2020 is going to put strain on prices going forward into 2021, regardless of economic conditions. OK, I can go along with that. I guess we will never really know until May-June 2021. Good thing is we can time travel forward, one day at a time, and soon enough we'll find out.

[larry_arizona]

I doubt skiers increased capacity, at least not in a capital way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

What u are positing is that market saturation due to COVID related surge in buying in 2020 is going to put strain on prices going forward into 2021, regardless of economic conditions. OK, I can go along with that. I guess we will never really know until May-June 2021. Good thing is we can time travel forward, one day at a time, and soon enough we'll find out.

wish we had access to the database that onlyinboards uses. it would be interesting to pull some data out on days on market and listing price by model. I bet it would show pricing on new ads dropping and days on market increasing IF you're priced at the high end of the average listing price.

when we were shopping in june there was around 1700 listings. there's 2700 today. market still has some corrections to come.

[2in2out]

Just read this article

https://apple.news/A5l221QMbQn-46tpdTGnDQw

and, I have to agree that the outdoors markets and power sports industries will see a market stabilization and decreased sales. I see people getting back to work mid summer, keeping them from enjoying the outdoors. The less economically fortunate will be struggling, and the economic divide will widen. Factors that some of us used to get into better boats won’t exist, and will have to stay in them for some time.

I see people returning to the cities, but only at a rate of half that fled. Those that stay in the burbs or rural areas will still partake in outdoor activities at a lesser scale. The housing market will still be overinflated, keeping people from buying $80k+ boats. The job market will return. You’ll see an exodus from healthcare, and it will take time for wages to increase enough to keep that exodus from occurring.

The middle class is dying out. Malls and the power sports industry are an indication of this. Sxs’s show that power sports have gone beyond what the average man can afford. When a new dirt bike is almost $10k stock, premium can be asked on a 10 y/o clapped out 2-stroke, because that is the limit many can buy. The used power sports will see a decaying premium as long as the brand new inventory is priced according to 2020 valuation.

[jcarter20]

I am on the market for a couple of Side x sides since this spring. Been looking at the CF moto Z-force 800EX. Like everything else during COVID, it was impossible to find one and if you found a dealer with any ATX sideXside, they would not budge from MRSP, my local dealer told me they would likely not be able to get one until may or June!
Been looking again and find extensive stock and dealers who are even selling at discounts.
Found this Polaris RZR 900 at a very reasonable price, in stock at discount:

2020 Polaris[emoji2400] RZR[emoji2400] S 900

Retail Price$14,999.00
Sale Price$13,515.00

That's almost 1500 off. That was impossible in the spring. I've also seen a wide variety of used Wakeboats on Boattrader and some price drops.
Which begs the question: is this just a winter blip that will pick back up in the spring or is the COVID premium stating to recede?

On the topic of the SXS...what drew you to the CF Moto over an RZR anyway? I have saw quite a few on a showroom floor in Tennesse this year. All of the Can Am’s they had were sold out, but the CF’s were still plentiful. I honestly didn’t even give it the time of day for that reason. I just assumed it wasn’t built to truly hold up to the rocky terrain in Tn, like some of the other major brands. Just curious. Maybe I should look at one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

I stand corrected.....after a brief bit of research, CF Moto international is based in China. Not a chance in hell I would own one. No wonder they were still on the showroom floor.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Isaguel]

I stand corrected.....after a brief bit of research, CF Moto international is based in China. Not a chance in hell I would own one. No wonder they were still on the showroom floor.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I felt the same way initially. I've been looking at them for a while, reading reviews from owners and their experience on long term ownership, tons of vids on youtube. They've been around for 25 yrs and very popular in Europe I've learned. They make engines for many manufacturers, including KTM. So far appear to be well liked by owners, generally. Like anything else mechanical, they'll hold up only as well as you care and maintain them. They offer a very compelling value proposition. Feature-feature, they are thousands below comparably equipped ATV's. Things like doors, roof, side mirrors, winch, blinkers and other features are all standard whereas these are typically extra on other mfr's. I'm not saying its the best and I'm not planning to pick an SXS up until spring, so I have time, but I wont just offhand dismiss it as a possibility because of its provenance. I'm still researching it. But if I can get a polaris or Canam comparably equipped for 500-1000$ more, I'd prolly go that route.

[jcarter20]

I read the article about the KTM JV. I took that to be KTM making motors for motorcycles, not the SXS or ATV’s. Maybe I am wrong on that. I would research a little more on things like horse power and torque. Their specs look low. For example the 1000v twin is only 79hp. My Can Am Renegade 1000 ATV is 90hp....for an ATV. Other manufacturers are well up over 100hp for SXS. I would also look at weight, suspension manufacturer, and quality of aftermarket accessories. If you intent to do harsh trail Riding, those things are critical and won’t last if they are cheap. SXS and ATV’s are not like boats in the sense that if you just “maintain them they will last forever”. They are made to take a beating and they do! However, if they don’t have high quality parts they won’t last one ride. This all depends on how you ride them also. I like rock crawling, mud, sand, speed, and pretty much anything the trails can through at you. If you are going to go out and just roll around and drink some beers, then those things aren’t as critical.
The KTM partnership is intriguing though. KTM and Husqvarna have made some real commitments over the last few years to dominate the motocross and supercross industry and they have done a great job of it. KTM makes good stuff for sure. I just have a hard time buying anything Chinese if I can help it....especially these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[larry_arizona]

For perspective,

If a Chinese wakeboat manufacturer knocked off a Supra for moomba money, would you buy it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

Nope


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bmjenkins82]

This thread reminds me of a funny Meme I saw....

Salesman Slaps roof of RZR

“ Just serviced and got a new belt, she’s only had one test drive.... just needs a new belt”

UTVs break all the time.... even the best brands. I’d make sure I was buying a brand with good parts availability.

[sandm]

For perspective,
If a Chinese wakeboat manufacturer knocked off a Supra for moomba money, would you buy it?


can't say I'd buy it 100% but I'd sure give it a once over and read the reviews. almost everything that runs on electricity in anyones house anymore comes from china and we all line up like minions to buy the next iphone or galaxy or xbox or or or.. so what makes a boat any different other than the initial cost?

heck, a chunk of what goes into these are made in china as it is.

[larry_arizona]

I am sure the current boat OEMS rely on China sourced suppliers much like Automotive, however, there is a big difference as to where things are designed and engineered versus manufactured.

That said, I personally would not opt for a Chinese reverse engineered and manufactured boat, SXS or any vehicle for that matter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Isaguel]

I read the article about the KTM JV. I took that to be KTM making motors for motorcycles, not the SXS or ATV’s. Maybe I am wrong on that. I would research a little more on things like horse power and torque. Their specs look low. For example the 1000v twin is only 79hp. My Can Am Renegade 1000 ATV is 90hp....for an ATV. Other manufacturers are well up over 100hp for SXS. I would also look at weight, suspension manufacturer, and quality of aftermarket accessories. If you intent to do harsh trail Riding, those things are critical and won’t last if they are cheap. SXS and ATV’s are not like boats in the sense that if you just “maintain them they will last forever”. They are made to take a beating and they do! However, if they don’t have high quality parts they won’t last one ride. This all depends on how you ride them also. I like rock crawling, mud, sand, speed, and pretty much anything the trails can through at you. If you are going to go out and just roll around and drink some beers, then those things aren’t as critical.
The KTM partnership is intriguing though. KTM and Husqvarna have made some real commitments over the last few years to dominate the motocross and supercross industry and they have done a great job of it. KTM makes good stuff for sure. I just have a hard time buying anything Chinese if I can help it....especially these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I appreciate the input. I'll certainly take all these in consideration before dropping 12-13k on a machine.
I do agree though, I would rather not buy Chinese, but like sandman said, if we go that route, then we should not be buying iphones, Macs, other computers, coffeemakers, TV's, medications, and the hundreds of items we all have around our homes. I do not plan to ride too hard. Mostly go out and have a few beer and enjoy the outdoors. You can get a can am or Polaris with a couple K miles for the price of a new CF, but I am wary of buying these used as people tend to ride them hard and one does not know how well they were maintained. Heard bad things bout Arctic Cat from owners, and the Kawasaki's are just as expensive and Honda's are as expensive as a well equipped small sedan.

As far as the Supra/Moomba question, I don't believe I would. I feel like there's more stuff, more expensive that can fail on a boat, and given price, say 60-80K prolly for a Chinese knockoff boat, that's still a lot of money and I'm going to want something that is quality and reliable If I'm paying that much. And further, if I am willing to pay 70K for a boat then I'm likely open to pay an extra 20-25k for the real thing and sleep well at night. I would not drop 70k of hard earned money on a Chinese made knockoff product. I am more willing to sacrifice reliability the lower the price of the item.

[UNSTUCK]

can't say I'd buy it 100% but I'd sure give it a once over and read the reviews. almost everything that runs on electricity in anyones house anymore comes from china and we all line up like minions to buy the next iphone or galaxy or xbox or or or.. so what makes a boat any different other than the initial cost?

heck, a chunk of what goes into these are made in china as it is.


This is true. Chinas manufacturing is as good as the (American) engineer intends it to be. They can and do build stuff as good as can be, when it’s called for. It’s just not called for real often, sadly.

[larry_arizona]

Arctic Cat used to be good stuff.

I know Textron bought them and discontinued the Arctic Cat off road market name brand. The Textron name didn’t catch on, so they revived the Arctic Cat brand.

Road Arctic Snowmobiles for 25 years and they always were cutting edge.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

my old peer at work in WI was a HUGE cat fan. had the latest machine every other year and swore by them. they were nice rides to say the least.....

we rented a slingshot 2 summers ago to ride out to redrocks. after spending a day in that thing, no way I would pony up for a polaris vehicle, snow or otherwise. talk about rattles, shakes and overall felt like it was well used. only had a few k on the clock. they had them doing burnouts/drifting at sema last year and had to park them every 30 minutes or so to prevent blowing a motor. didn't see the cobras and raptor trucks cooling off :)

[larry_arizona]

Polaris RZR’s had a significant fire issue a few years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Isaguel]

my old peer at work in WI was a HUGE cat fan. had the latest machine every other year and swore by them. they were nice rides to say the least.....

we rented a slingshot 2 summers ago to ride out to redrocks. after spending a day in that thing, no way I would pony up for a polaris vehicle, snow or otherwise. talk about rattles, shakes and overall felt like it was well used. only had a few k on the clock. they had them doing burnouts/drifting at sema last year and had to park them every 30 minutes or so to prevent blowing a motor. didn't see the cobras and raptor trucks cooling off :)

The slingshot is a whole different vehicle though. Does that translate to the SXS manufacturing arm? I dunno, Many components are prolly different. I had a Polaris Virage Jet ski for 16 yrs and it ran like a top, after 16yrs it consistently started on the first try, never failed. Sold it and got a new Yamaha Waverunner, and although the Yammy is great, the Polaris just felt more solid, well built, not as "plasticky". But then that was yr 2000 manufacturing vs 2018, seems like everything is cheaply built these days. Again, I think it all depends on how you maintain these things.

[larry_arizona]

If you want bulletproof toys, buy a Honda.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

we had a polaris sl900 jetski for a season. it was VERY used and rough but it ran great once I replaced a couple gaskets. solid machine. it was late 90's model tho iirc.
I have heard several say the same thing on the slingshots. gm engine but assembled and designed by polaris and it's a rattle machine.

I've had yammy's and kawi's in the sportbike world and to me, anything that revs to 18-18,500rpm's, does it willingly, without overheating and all day long show a commitment to quality builds. never an issue with any of them when I pushed them hard doing runs up the twisties and back. honda I have heard are just as robust but never owned one. my current whip is a '16 kawi z650(bought in 18 as a leftover) and it feels cheaper than the old zx6's and I don't get a sense it'll be as solid when I hit my first 5k as the other bikes.

[2in2out]

My buddy had a rzr900 and the rear end grenaded on us out hunting. The nylocks in the rear diff heat up and unthread. After research he found it was a common problem and Polaris would not cover it under warranty or recall. He fixed it and sold it, buying a Teryx to replace it. Solid and stable machine and drives well. Not quite the look of the Rzr, but works for hunting and exploring.

I had Honda Aquatrax jet skis. Solid build, and near flawless performance for 100 hrs. Had Yamaha dirt bikes and sport bikes, and found them solid, durable, and easy to work on.

Back to boats and the Covid economy, we drove between Kingman and Albuquerque today on I40, and I counted 15 different types of used boats on transports, and at least 30 new boats (tooners and bass boats) all headed westbound. I think the used market is still hot.

[larry_arizona]

Had an aquatrax turbo and it was fun for a couch. Bulletproof and my buddy still has it at 600 hours+, only issue was a gas tank recall.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

can't say I'd buy it 100% but I'd sure give it a once over and read the reviews. almost everything that runs on electricity in anyones house anymore comes from china and we all line up like minions to buy the next iphone or galaxy or xbox or or or.. so what makes a boat any different other than the initial cost?

heck, a chunk of what goes into these are made in china as it is.

The difference is on many of those items we don’t have a choice. Trust me if I could find an I-Phone made in Dayton Ohio, I would buy it. Reality is they just don’t exist. Hell, I went to buy my kid an outdoor basketball the other day...struggled to find one made in the USA. Some things you just have to suck it up and buy it because there isn’t another choice. I am honestly one of those people who will spend and extra few bucks on something made in the USA, or at least not made in China. That is just me though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

If you want bulletproof toys, buy a Honda.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The new Honda Talon is legit. Not sure why it takes them so long to catch up to the market when it comes to ATV’s and SXS. When they do, it is always good stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

Back to boats and the Covid economy, we drove between Kingman and Albuquerque today on I40, and I counted 15 different types of used boats on transports, and at least 30 new boats (tooners and bass boats) all headed westbound. I think the used market is still hot.

cousin traded his tige in at prestige in boise on a new one. they have had the same 3 used tiges and 2 skiers boats for 2 months now. his has seen a 3k reduction in price.
if you are priced at the low end I think stuff is still selling but if you are still trying to capitalize on the market that was here this summer and priced stupidly like prestige's tiges/moombas, the market is dead-considering the time of the year.. if I were shopping right now, I'd jump on a crazy deal if it popped up but otherwise I'd sit it out until spring and see what happens to some of the covid purchases. most of what's for sale on onlyinboards are still priced like it was summer and they are sitting.

[sandm]

Trust me if I could find an I-Phone made in Dayton Ohio, I would buy it.

except that once you figure out the bloated union contract making them and the profit margins needed, that same $1200 iphone xxxx would cost 4k and no one would buy it.
we have become so used to cheap consumables that if the us were to dictate all made in america our economy would collapse. everyone wants it cheap and now. doesn't matter where it comes from nor how long it'll last....

[larry_arizona]

About 17 years ago I was working for a US automotive supplier that was starting a Chinese joint venture just at the advent of moving manufacturing there.

After 11 months of seeing the unethical behavior of the Chinese JV, I flew home from that China trip and resigned immediately.

Myself and a couple friends challenged each other to avoid buying anything Chinese for 30 days regardless of increases cost.

We all failed the 30 day challenge, it literally could not be done.

17 years later, it’s only worse.

I will say my current company was aggressively moving our supplier base out of China, honestly one of the most rewarding experiences of my career for the past 18 months.

Sadly, several of these supplier moves back to the US are on hold pending the 1st qtr of 2021.

My guess is they are going back to China.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

except that once you figure out the bloated union contract making them and the profit margins needed, that same $1200 iphone xxxx would cost 4k and no one would buy it.
we have become so used to cheap consumables that if the us were to dictate all made in america our economy would collapse. everyone wants it cheap and now. doesn't matter where it comes from nor how long it'll last....

Exactly why things like I-phones fall into the
category of “we don’t have a choice”. Maybe the government should incentivize business to stay in the US. Oh wait, we were starting to do that....My guess is the reason Larry’s company has plans to move manufacturing back to the US on hold are because of the outcome of the recent election results.... sorry, that is an entirely new rabbit hole. [emoji23]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Zog]

Exactly why things like I-phones fall into the
category of “we don’t have a choice”. Maybe the government should incentivize business to stay in the US. Oh wait, we were starting to do that....My guess is the reason Larry’s company has plans to move manufacturing back to the US on hold are because of the outcome of the recent election results.... sorry, that is an entirely new rabbit hole. [emoji23]

Having visited the factories in China where mobile phones are made, we cannot do it here without a massive move to robotic production. They are housing massive numbers of people to manufacture all kinds of devices on the factory sites. The ability to scale up manufacturing is unbelievably quick for these devices. I visited one plant several times and was able to see how quickly they moved. In January there were about 7,000 employees onsite. When I went back in May, they had 29,000 people working in the facility. There was a line of people out the front gate with newly minted engineering degrees and resumes in hand. I asked the owner what their ultimate plans were for the site and was told they planned on 130,000 by the end of the year. When I spoke with them in October, they had 89,000 people onsite. I would challenge you to find any city in America that could support a factory with even 89,000 employees. People are no longer willing to relocate to new places for new opportunities.

That doesn't even speak to the differences in environmental regulations, safety regulations, utility costs, etc. Though nominally nearly the same, the provincial governments in China are willing to bend over backwards to accommodate expanded production. Gradually things have tightened up though, which has led to increases in costs for these facilities.

China is already pushing to increase robotic production. Eventually it will lead to the same point we need to be at now. We could do the same with the right investment, but the idea that people need to be making things persists and prevents government investment in improved production methods.

[jcarter20]

Having visited the factories in China where mobile phones are made, we cannot do it here without a massive move to robotic production. They are housing massive numbers of people to manufacture all kinds of devices on the factory sites. The ability to scale up manufacturing is unbelievably quick for these devices. I visited one plant several times and was able to see how quickly they moved. In January there were about 7,000 employees onsite. When I went back in May, they had 29,000 people working in the facility. There was a line of people out the front gate with newly minted engineering degrees and resumes in hand. I asked the owner what their ultimate plans were for the site and was told they planned on 130,000 by the end of the year. When I spoke with them in October, they had 89,000 people onsite. I would challenge you to find any city in America that could support a factory with even 89,000 employees. People are no longer willing to relocate to new places for new opportunities.

That doesn't even speak to the differences in environmental regulations, safety regulations, utility costs, etc. Though nominally nearly the same, the provincial governments in China are willing to bend over backwards to accommodate expanded production. Gradually things have tightened up though, which has led to increases in costs for these facilities.

China is already pushing to increase robotic production. Eventually it will lead to the same point we need to be at now. We could do the same with the right investment, but the idea that people need to be making things persists and prevents government investment in improved production methods.

I was being sarcastic on the I-phone thing. Certainly not suggesting that is an overnight process. However, we need to incentivize business to stay here in the states. Not push it away. All I am saying is if you give me a choice to buy a basketball made in the USA for $15 vs. one made in China for $10, I pay the extra $5 every time. I would not pay $4k for an I-phone vs. $1k for one made in China. Some things aren’t realistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

However, we need to incentivize business to stay here in the states.

incentivize is a dangerous word.
personally not a fan of gov't stepping in to incent something to happen. that basketball has a price difference of $5 but now that you're offering incentives to be made here that difference is now $8 since somewhere along the way we are paying more in taxes for that incent for the business.
a company should be able to put together a product to show a profit without freebies and if they can't, they either haven't done a good job building up the value proposition OR their product is too expensive to begin with. maybe I missed it but capitalism conversations back in high school economics didn't discuss incentives but more how to create a product that people want at a price people are willing to pay.

as zog mentions we have become a nation of consumers, not builders and to try and change that now with our appetite for cheap foreign goods would cost way too much in incentives to change.

[Isaguel]

Regarding this idea that gov't can somehow influence businesses to stay anywhere is the dream doled out by politicians. The main driver of businesses decisions and investments boils down to good o'l capitalism. Whether you like it or not, or are willing to accept it or not. And there is very little any Gov't can do. We, every individual citizen, are the ones who by our actions and choices effect our economy. To bring it down to the simplest denominator, if you're a venture capitalist with a million dollars to invest and you get 2 propositions, 1) you can invest your money in a Tennis shoe factory in China who pays workers 1$/hr, no O/T, no payed leave, no health premiums, workmen's comp nor disability, or any of the worker protections we Americans hold dear. And you have an abundance of workers who will clock in 14 hr/days to maintain high productivity or 2) a Factory in Seattle which pays 15$/hr, O/T, C/T laws, OSHA, Health, disability, WM Comp, and retirement contributions and other worker protections. On the one you get 20% ROI on the second you get 5% ROI. Where do you think the capitalist will go? That's rhetorical.
There is no Gov't intervention that will fix that disparity in competition. In order to make American mfg affordable, how many Americans would be willing to work at a Nike factory for 5-6$/hr?. So how do we fix that? Gov't incentives to companies to keep mfg here, payed with the average worker tax dollars?. I think, rather than just saying the Gov't is going to fix this, the problem is far more complex and nuanced than we are willing to accept. We want to boil it down to a simple matter of Gov't intervention. I agree also with Sandman. Capitalism ensures success if you can make a product that meets a need, can be produced reliably to ensure a profit to reinvest and grow and be price competitive in a free marketplace. Adding tariffs only makes my products more expensive at the till. In essence a tax, using my dollars to finance an empty act of political posturing. So, should we maybe subsidize mfg companies that stay in US? Sure, they'll take the money that Gov't doles out and then still move mfg to where they can make it less expensive. This is not any Gov'ts fault and there is little any Gov't can do. It's the natural progression of capitalism at its purest form. We ignore these uncomfortable truths and yet we do not want to compromise in our lifestyle. And Gov't wants to keep appeasing us so they spend to create the illusion that everything is going well. That's why we're over 27T$ in debt and growing, even Pre-COVID debt rose to 23T. We want to maintain our QOL and that is very expensive. Someone has to pay for it, and someone will, we just keep pushing it off to our kids and grandkids to deal with and Gov't and politicians are more than happy to keep borrowing and maintain that illusion so they can hang on to power and their nice cushy jobs in Washington and keep their hold on power.

[rhouse181]

I spent the first 10 years of my professional life in management consulting performing industry benchmarking studies for petrochemical producers across the globe. I've traveled to every nook / cranny of this world visiting manufacturing facilities and every region does things differently to remain competitive in a ever more cutthroat economic environment. Each strategy has it's trade offs, benefits, and consequences... it's hard to say what approach is right or wrong.

My experiences in China are my absolute least favorite and I have no desire to waste another minute of my life over there, but you have to maintain some level of respect for their complete "send it" to become the manufacturing engine of the global economy. They have achieved so much in such a sort period of time.

America will never become a manufacturing hub again. Ultimately Americans are lazy and entitled... there are far more people in this world that are willing to make great personal sacrifices for a manufacturing job making small wages in some shitty ass factory. Sure we will continue to produce bespoke / complicated things, but not the mundane things that are most relevant to daily life.

Subsidies and incentives just make uncompetitive business practices justifiable for executives, boards, and shareholders at the expense of higher value added spending that government could undertake... how about paving some roads and making sure our bridges don't collapse before saving the business of your ol B-school buddy that is now non-competitive against overseas alternatives.

[sandm]

America will never become a manufacturing hub again. Ultimately Americans are lazy and entitled... .

rhouse, agree 100% and especially this statement. we need to stop worrying about where jobs are going and start figuring out what jobs are left and how to train our lazy kids(18-30) to do them.
on kids, over the last 3 years, I interview well north of 250 candidates a year. I hire and lose about 60 a year. heck, even in the pandemic 5 in the last 15 days. single biggest reason people don't work for me is attendance-and most of my hires are in the 18-30 range as my work is physically demanding. I always say I would not hire me to do my work. kids today are LAZY AF. granted my work isn't glamorous or easy but it's a solid paycheck and GREAT insurance. I can work with anyone on the production front and have a lot of patience for those that try but you have to show up for work.
I blame parents today and most of them are just as bad. my old man would have beat my ass if I did some of the things kids do today but parents today just don't care. every week I am amazed at the new things I deal with.

and isaguel, your last statement on someone's kids having to pay for it... some will say I'm nuts and sad but I'm glad I never chose to bring kids into this world as I see the US is sliding down a dark hole and your kids' kids are in for an interesting ride.


ok, back to subsidies and incentives...
think about this while paying your taxes this year.... boating just had a record year. all will attest to that. builders have sold out build slots and can't produce fast enough. part of your stipend going to the gov't wound up in skiers choice bank account for the PPP program(they are not alone). granted not in manufacturing and don't live in tennessee so not sure on the impact and don't know if it was ultimately used or not but with a record year for toy sales..
https://projects.propublica.org/coronavirus/bailouts/search?q=skiers+choice
ya I know it's a political website but data is data.

[rdlangston13]

The new Honda Talon is legit. Not sure why it takes them so long to catch up to the market when it comes to ATV’s and SXS. When they do, it is always good stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is what I was going to say. I like the way they use a real transmission. Flying through trails tapping paddle shifters on the steering wheel just seems way more fun than a CVT. Also I just feel like CVTs have too many issues.


The difference is on many of those items we don’t have a choice. Trust me if I could find an I-Phone made in Dayton Ohio, I would buy it. Reality is they just don’t exist. Hell, I went to buy my kid an outdoor basketball the other day...struggled to find one made in the USA. Some things you just have to suck it up and buy it because there isn’t another choice. I am honestly one of those people who will spend and extra few bucks on something made in the USA, or at least not made in China. That is just me though.


This 100%. F China. I wish the Fed Govt would come out and mandate that essential items, especially for the medical community have to be made domestically. Have we forgotten how much of a disaster it was getting basic supplies when China was shut down? We need to work towards removing all our manufacturing from China and either bringing it home or moving it to other friendly countries. China is not our friend, if we don't want to rely on them to make bullets for our military then why would we rely on them to make anything else essential???

[MJHSupra]

Do you think this next administration is going to be anti-China? They are all willing to look the other way when big business has new-markets to tap into and make MASSIVE fortunes. Big business has money and lobby power. Money and lobbyists in politics sways the decisions.

Hell, nobody has even been talking about the origin of this virus and if there could be anything done to slow the worldwide transmissions down for the next one.

[rdlangston13]

The new Honda Talon is legit. Not sure why it takes them so long to catch up to the market when it comes to ATV’s and SXS. When they do, it is always good stuff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The difference is on many of those items we don’t have a choice. Trust me if I could find an I-Phone made in Dayton Ohio, I would buy it. Reality is they just don’t exist. Hell, I went to buy my kid an outdoor basketball the other day...struggled to find one made in the USA. Some things you just have to suck it up and buy it because there isn’t another choice. I am honestly one of those people who will spend and extra few bucks on something made in the USA, or at least not made in China. That is just me though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Do you think this next administration is going to be anti-China? They are all willing to look the other way when big business has new-markets to tap into and make MASSIVE fortunes. Big business has money and lobby power. Money and lobbyists in politics sways the decisions.

Hell, nobody has even been talking about the origin of this virus and if there could be anything done to slow the worldwide transmissions down for the next one.

I don't think the incoming administration has any desire to be tough on China or any other adversaries of ours. POTUS is the really the only one to call China out for creating this but even he didn't really do anything about it that I am aware of. China knows Biden is in their camp, as soon as he won China started putting restrictions on trade with Australia because they were pressing them for answers about the virus. Biden won, China immediately steps up their bullying.

[larry_arizona]

I have been personally working on moving a few Chinese suppliers back to American suppliers due to the Trump steel tariffs.

It’s been hard but satisfying, BUT my fear is once Biden is in office, day 1 he will remove tariffs and the move back to the US will be off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

Who is Biden???? You all mean President elect Harris right? [emoji6][emoji6]. Biden didn’t even win the primary race IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jcarter20]

Who is Biden???? You all mean President elect Harris right? [emoji6][emoji6]. Biden didn’t even win the primary race IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh you mean this guy? Surly this country didn’t elect a 78 yr old man with dementia. Sorry, I can’t help it with the sarcasm.

https://youtu.be/5_M6oScyWxI


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

Sorry, I can’t help it with the sarcasm.


I'm not sure which is worse... 78 year old guy with dementia that won't make 2 terms OR the 3 year old child pouting and throwing a temper tantrum in the white house currently.....

it's a REAL sad state that of millions and millions of people in this country, these are the best 2 to represent us.....

[jcarter20]

I'm not sure which is worse... 78 year old guy with dementia that won't make 2 terms OR the 3 year old child pouting and throwing a temper tantrum in the white house currently.....

it's a REAL sad state that of millions and millions of people in this country, these are the best 2 to represent us.....

Totally agree.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[larry_arizona]

My theory is it’s not the two candidates, it’s the media and social media portrayals of both of them.

The media and socials have ruined this country.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rdlangston13]

My theory is it’s not the two candidates, it’s the media and social media portrayals of both of them.

The media and socials have ruined this country.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There is something to bed said for that. Just watch that Netflix documentary about social media.

[larry_arizona]

Billionaire media owners shaping our country.

It feels like sky net from Terminator......

“Listen. Understand. That Terminator is out there. It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with...it doesn't feel pity of remorse or fear...and it absolutely will not stop.Ever. Until you are dead.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MJHSupra]

It's a disgrace that the media does not report more about the big tech companies (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Airbnb, Lyft, LinkedIn, Microsoft, etc) taking the new positions in senior roles at government agencies.

Now it will be back to Crony Washington Insiders feeding from the Public Food Trough.

Cable news channels and Media will take a big hit in the coming years. Joe Biden is so darn SCRIPTED and CONTROLLED nobody will be tuning in, thus they cannot sell Advertising. They are already saying they will not be as hard on Biden as their hatred for Trump . . . come on, what the h&ll kind of journalist says that?

[larry_arizona]

It's a disgrace that the media does not report more about the big tech companies (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Airbnb, Lyft, LinkedIn, Microsoft, etc) taking positions in new senior roles at government agencies?

But now it will be back to Crony Washington Insiders feeding from the Public Food Trough.

Cable news channels and Media will take a big hit in the coming years. Joe Biden is so darn BORING and SCRIPTED nobody will be tuning in. They are already saying they will not be as hard on Biden as their hated for Trump . . . come on, what the h&ll kind of journalist says that?

Professional journalism has been dead for 15+ years.

No degree needed anymore, no professionalism, no standards, no accountability.

I would say journalists are near bottom of the list of respected professionals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[j.mo]

I'm not sure which is worse... 78 year old guy with dementia that won't make 2 terms OR the 3 year old child pouting and throwing a temper tantrum in the white house currently.....

it's a REAL sad state that of millions and millions of people in this country, these are the best 2 to represent us.....

Y’all are starting to give me WakeWorld ptsd


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[2in2out]

Yeah, go look at Only Inboards again and let’s get back to the point of this thread. Used boat availability is nil. What is there is 10% more than it was last January. The stock market is still rolling, house values are going up steadily, rate are low. Inflation is occurring under our noses, and anyone pulling in greater than $175k in joint income is making it rain, because the can’t travel, eat out, etc.

No one can predict with any certainty tomorrow based on the information of today. Read Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan, and you’ll see how little we actually know about economies, risk, and human influences on markets. Nothing right now makes economic sense, and a lot will be gleaned in hindsight.

On that note, used boat prices suck right now. Glad I got mine when I did, but I should’ve ordered a new boat because of the longer warrantees and the equity of a transferable warrantee. The technology equity is negative, and warranty equity is all we have.

[sandm]

go look at Only Inboards again and let’s get back to the point of this thread. Used boat availability is nil. What is there is 10% more than it was last January. .

filter on anything 2020 or older as lets be real, no real leftover market right now. there's over 1400 used for sale which leaves around a grand in 2021 inventory listed and looks like around 4-500 are dead ads that were never removed.. that's a decent assortment and I would guess it's 50-60% of a "normal" market as I would wager of the 5-5500 that used to be listed, 2grand of those were dead listings that had been sold and never deleted.
prestige, and I know you know the dealership well, are not a small dealership. they have had the same 2 skiers boats and same 3 tiges for sale for over 3 months now. I look every week to see if they peddled or lowered the price on my cousins boat. in june those would have been gone in 24hrs and his has had 1 price drop already.

if you're in the market, there's boats to buy and deals to be had but still a lot of overpriced paperweights out there.
2in is right in that the higher wage earners are driving the economy but my gut is those that wanted boats are in them or deposits on and although there will still be increased demand, it's not going to be a repeat of 2020.

the crowded lakes will drive some that got into it to get right back out. some parts of the country can't support much more growth on the available waterways and it'll make some rethink boat ownership.

[larry_arizona]

I do have concerns about crowded lakes this summer.

Just need to get out on the lake early


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sandm]

I do have concerns about crowded lakes this summer.

Just need to get out on the lake early


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

how is it in your neck. in wisconsin we never had an issue at the small ramp we launched at. here the line starts growing at 8am in the summer. by 9 expect a decent wait. boise we were good as long as it was before 9 as well.
we usually pull out around 2 as it's 115 on a hot day by then and we are usually waiting 30 minutes to leave from those still dropping.

[larry_arizona]

I have one lake with zero traffic, one with moderate traffic and one that is full by 10am.

The busy lake had no DNR workers tending it last season and when the parking was full it would log jam.

Typically if there was a state employee working, they closed the parking lot to prevent a ramp log jam.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BizzyC]

filter on anything 2020 or older as lets be real, no real leftover market right now. there's over 1400 used for sale which leaves around a grand in 2021 inventory listed and looks like around 4-500 are dead ads that were never removed.. that's a decent assortment and I would guess it's 50-60% of a "normal" market as I would wager of the 5-5500 that used to be listed, 2grand of those were dead listings that had been sold and never deleted.
prestige, and I know you know the dealership well, are not a small dealership. they have had the same 2 skiers boats and same 3 tiges for sale for over 3 months now. I look every week to see if they peddled or lowered the price on my cousins boat. in june those would have been gone in 24hrs and his has had 1 price drop already.

if you're in the market, there's boats to buy and deals to be had but still a lot of overpriced paperweights out there.
2in is right in that the higher wage earners are driving the economy but my gut is those that wanted boats are in them or deposits on and although there will still be increased demand, it's not going to be a repeat of 2020.

the crowded lakes will drive some that got into it to get right back out. some parts of the country can't support much more growth on the available waterways and it'll make some rethink boat ownership.

I personally don’t think we’ll see a big change in 2021 compared to 2020…whether it’s inventory, pricing, busy lakes, etc.

All the things that drove people to the lakes in 2020 – no vacation, pool memberships, summer camps, etc. aren’t going to be back to full business as usual in a few short months. Also, spending will continue with new stimulus checks, low-interest rates, etc., couple that with lagging supply chains and low inventory and pricing for luxury goods will still be at a premium.

I believe that after next summer (2022) when we’re hopefully back to some level of normalcy and people then realize the boat didn’t get used that much, the lakes are too busy, etc., we’ll see more used inventory, which will slow down demand for new, potentially lower pricing, etc.

[2in2out]

One place I've been seeing some movement towards price stabilization is the large motorhome market. There hasn't been any increases in inventory, but prices aren't too far off NADA, which is strange given that inventory is low. 5th wheels are flooding both the new and used markets, but that is a continuum pre-covid.

[sandm]

there's an rv dealer that must be somewhere close as we pick it up on a local station that has been advertising leftover 2019 rv's/5th wheels.
this tells me the rv industry was not hit as hard as the boat/offroad industry as I hear from guys at work into it that 20-25% is still the norm for discounts and some are seeing upwards of 35%.
I drive by a cruiseamerica dealership every day to work and they don't appear to be doing a booming business as the lot is always full of rentals. couple fridays they had some noticable holes in the lot but sunday/monday the units parked on the road being returned were not any worse than years past. sure their volume is up but I would bet it's not like the boating industry.

boats/jetskis and side by sides seemed to be the items that were the hardest to find which makes sense when you think of families looking for day trip activities. camping is a much larger commitment and at least here, that doesn't seem to be what people were flocking to.

[larry_arizona]

I read boat loans were up 355% and RV’s 158%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[2in2out]

Trailers are produced domestically and don’t suffer heavily during trade issues, except on minor components. Motorhomes get hit some because of foreign manufactured drivetrain and electrical components, but like boats, new ones are ordered by people who have money and some economic stability, where-as the used market is people looking to not buy depreciation, or have limited means. The SXS market I’m sure was hit by trade issues related to policy and pandemic, creating supply side deficiencies and driving costs up.

The amount of people living in RV’s currently is pretty staggering. We have on street that is lined with cars and old RV’s that people are living out of. I’m noticing more and more people living in rvs on family members land. But these are RV’s that are 10 yrs or older, many over 20 yrs, not nice <10 yr models. CL ads don’t last long in the <15k market. But above that, turnover is pretty minimal.

[j.mo]

I had my Momentum 5th wheel posted for sale, hoping to get into a smaller one. Not one single phone call in about 3 months. It is 43ft triple axle. So I can attest to the larger units not moving.
26ft half ton towable travel trailers have been flying, figured I’d try my hand.

My rzr id had for 3 years and only used a hand full of times. Figured I’d take advantage and move it while it’s hot. Full price, sold for cash within 4 hours.
I’d had it posted the year previous for a few months and got tired of people offering me half price.

I also noticed the lack of inventory at dealers and private party of Harley’s. Was looking for a new Harley last July, in which I ended up with a gently used unit for a great deal. A friend of mine wanted to buy it, so I figured I’d upgrade. Well now I know why he wants to buy it. Last summer they still had droves of bikes, even 2017 leftovers at some dealers. Craigslist you could have pick of the litter. Bikes were everywhere. Not so the case now it seems. Prices have also seemed to go up, whether it be demand or covid-flation, well I guess that’s what this thread is here to discuss.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rdlangston13]

how is it in your neck. in wisconsin we never had an issue at the small ramp we launched at. here the line starts growing at 8am in the summer. by 9 expect a decent wait. boise we were good as long as it was before 9 as well.
we usually pull out around 2 as it's 115 on a hot day by then and we are usually waiting 30 minutes to leave from those still dropping.

That is crazy! The only time I have ever had any real wait at the long is at Moomba jam or a GCWA event, and even then we are talking 5-10 minutes tops.

[sandm]

That is crazy! The only time I have ever had any real wait at the long is at Moomba jam or a GCWA event, and even then we are talking 5-10 minutes tops.

lake havasu last year had a couple guys post up vids of 2+hr waits to launch and the line on the road in stretching for over a mile.
a chunk of those boats tho are 30+ft skaters and having seen several 40-45ft skaters launch at mead, they are not a quick in and drop. it's 20 minutes for a couple to drop a boat that size into the water.

[Zog]

lake havasu last year had a couple guys post up vids of 2+hr waits to launch and the line on the road in stretching for over a mile.
a chunk of those boats tho are 30+ft skaters and having seen several 40-45ft skaters launch at mead, they are not a quick in and drop. it's 20 minutes for a couple to drop a boat that size into the water.

We had 30 a minute wait to launch at Bullfrog in Lake Powell last summer, which was surprisingly long since they have two reasonably sized launch ramps there and it wasn't the weekend. The bigger problem may be this summer. Lake level projections show that Antelope Point and Bullfrog Marina may be out of water this summer. That will put tremendous pressure on Wahweap and Halls Crossing. Halls is not capable of handling the traffic a combined load from Bullfrog and Halls would place on it.

We are still seeing tremendous boat availability issues here. Reasonably priced houseboat shares have been sold before they hit the market, which is nice for someone who was unloading a boat, like I was, but made it difficult to find the boat we wanted to get onto. All the new boats have also made it difficult to get service done. I would hope that there would be a bump in service capacity at some point, but it doesn't seem to be a very easy market for people to get into.